What We Got Wrong in Our Market Outlook for 2022 and Its Impact on the Outlook for 2023

by Nicholas Atkeson, Partner, Delta Investment Management, LLC

In 2022, the S&P 500 depreciated by 24% before recession signals showed possible recession risk. The only recession indicator that provided concurrent recession readings was the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. Down 24% is typical market performance during a recession.  What went wrong?  Was there a recession in the first half of 2022 or not?  War, inflation, China Covid lockdowns, contraction in monetary supply… How will the market normalize in 2023 and what types of return should we expect from the S&P 500. Why did tradition advance recession signals fail us and will they be reliable going forward.

Meeting Details

Date:

Saturday, January 14, 2023

Time:

9:00 a.m.   Registration and Social

9:30 a.m.   What We Got Wrong In Our Market Outlook for 2022 and Its Impact on the Outlook for 2023 by Nicholas Atkeson

11:30        What works for me – might for you – or Not! – Jim Wick

Noon        Personal Finance & Retirement Income Special Interest Group [SIG] 

1:15 p.m.   Options and Analysis SIG

Location:

Jewish Community Campus

12701 North Scottsdale Road, Scottsdale, Arizona

Drive on 101 to exit 40 [E. Cactus Road]
Drive 2 miles west on E. Cactus to N. Scottsdale Rd.
Turn right on N. Scottsdale Rd. The Center is 1/8 mile on your right.  

Payment Options:

Mail in advanced registration - $9.00  [fee has not increased in 22years]

On-line with Eventbrite - $12:00  [includes Eventbrite’s commission]     

At-the-door registration - $15.00

Register in advance by:

mailing your $9.00 check with the meeting date on it to:

Terry Karpinski
319 E Catalina Lane
Queen Creek, AZ 85140 

Mail in advance registration must be received by the registrar Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Or on-line with Eventbrite for $12.00      

Eventbrite registration link:

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/aaii-phoenix-chapter-janaury-meeting-tickets-419852107957

Eventbrite advance registration must be done by Thursday, January 11, 2023

The afternoon SIG meetings are included in the Chapter meeting fee

Personal Finance and Retirement Income Special Interest Group SIG
Urban Adams
12:15 to 1:15 a.m.
Due to greater uncertainties, financial planning after retirement becomes more challenging. We all want to make good decisions. Where most investors get into trouble is not in their intent, it’s in their emotions and habits. The SIG's focus is educating members how-to make informed financial decisions which are in their best interest.

Options and Analysis SIG
Lowell Carty
1:30 p.m. to 2:30 p.m.
All AAII participants are invited to improve their wealth-building and management skills through the use of option instruments and analysis tools. You will benefit from a combination of tutorial presentations and active discussions that range from use of options to generate monthly income, "hedging" for protection of your stocks and directional trades.  Participant experience ranges from initial learning to active traders. We work closely with the AAII Fundamental Stocks and Investment Protection SIGs.

CHAPTER MESSAGE

We have a new program by chapter members: What Works for Me – Financially

If you are interested in making a 20 minute presentation on the broad subject at our Chapter meeting, contact me at areamer@mindspring.com
Thank you,
Allen Reamer, Chapter President